This Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis showcases fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis. With much more depth, detail, and utility than existing handbooks, each technique is clearly and systematically explained. Logically organized and richly illustrated, and with spiral binding and tabs that separate techniques into categories, this book is an easy-to-use, comprehensive reference.
New to this Edition:
Five techniques are added: AIMS, Venn Analysis, Cone of Plausibility, Decision Trees, and the Impact Matrix.
Three techniques—Quadrant Crunching™, Structured Brainstorming, and Red Hat Analysis—are significantly revised.
A new discussion of System 1 (or intuitive thinking) and System 2 (or analytic thinking) led to a new taxonomy of analytic approaches.
Discussion of cognitive biases and the role structured analytic techniques can play in helping analysts avoid, overcome, or at least mitigate them is expanded.
Discussion of how to develop the Five Habits of the Master Thinker to use the techniques instinctively
Revisions throughout the text ensure that all material speaks to both U.S. and international audiences.
Chapter 1: Introduction and Overview 1.1 Our Vision 1.2 Two Types of Thinking 1.3 Dealing with Bias 1.4 The Role of Structured Analytic Techniques 1.5 The Value of Team Analysis 1.6 The History of Structured Analytic Techniques 1.7 Selection of Techniques for This Book 1.8 Quick Summary of Chapters Chapter 2: Building a System 2 Taxonomy 2.1 Taxonomy of System 2 Methods 2.2 Taxonomy of Structured Analytic Techniques Chapter 3: Choosing the Right Technique 3.1 Core Techniques 3.2 Five Habits Every Analyst Should Master 3.3 One Project, Multiple Techniques 3.4 Common Errors in Selecting Techniques 3.5 Structured Technique Selection Guide Chapter 4: Decomposition and Visualization 4.1 Getting Started Checklist 4.2 AIMS (Audience, Issue, Message, Storyline) 4.3 Customer Checklist 4.4 Issue Redefinition 4.5 Chronologies and Timelines 4.6 Sorting Sub Heading 4.7 Ranking, Scoring, Prioritizing 4.8 Matrices 4.9 Venn Analysis 4.10 Network Analysis 4.11 Mind Maps and Concept Maps 4.12 Process Maps and Gantt Charts Chapter 5: Idea Generation 5.1 Structured Brainstorming 5.2 Virtual Brainstorming 5.3 Nominal Group Technique 5.4 Starbursting 5.5 Cross-Impact Matrix 5.6 Morphological Analysis 5.7 Quadrant Crunching™ Chapter 6: Scenarios and Indicators 6.1 Scenarios Analysis 6.2 Indicators 6.3 Indicators Validation Chapter 7: Hypothesis Generation and Testing 7.1 Hypothesis Generation 7.2 Diagnostic Reasoning 7.3 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses 7.4 Argument Mapping 7.5 Deception Detection Chapter 8: Assessment of Cause and Effect 8.1 Key Assumptions Check 8.2 Structured Analogies 8.3 Role Playing 8.4 Red Hat Analysis 8.5 Outside-In Thinking Chapter 9: Challenge Analysis 9.1 Premortem Analysis 9.2 Structured Self-Critique 9.3 What If? Analysis
Richards J. Heuer Jr. worked with the Intelligence Community in various roles for more than five decades. Now retired from the CIA, he is best known for his path-breaking book, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. He won multiple awards for his research and writing, including the CIA Seal Medallion for development of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses technique, the International Association of Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysts' annual award for the most significant contribution to the literature on law enforcement intelligence, and the International Association for Intelligence Education's annual award for contributions to intelligence education.
Randolph H. Pherson, President of Pherson Associates, LLC and CEO of Globalytica, LLC, spearheads the development and teaching of analytic techniques and critical thinking and writing skills for analysts in the government and the private sector. He served as National Intelligence Officer for Latin America. He is the recipient of the Distinguished Intelligence Medal and the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal, and is the co-author of books on critical thinking, analytic writing, and case studies.